Yup, folks, it’s that time of year again. The time for guys to ignore their wives and girlfriends from Thursday to Monday night. The time of year full of falling leaves and fantasy drafts. Yes, it is time for some football. And yes, I am ready. The start of the season brings hope to fans of all 32 teams. As of right now everybody’s favorite team is still undefeated and gleaming with Superbowl aspirations (Well, almost everybody, I apologize to the fans in Florida and Indianapolis.) You can watch ESPN or NFL Network to get some predictions, but there is only one place you can come for the truth. After studying the schedule, looking at all the off-season roster moves, and watching teams play a few scrimmages, I am finally ready to reveal my much anticipated predictions for the 2012 NFL season. As always, there are a few surprises, a few obvious picks, and of course a few things that will anger some people. Without further ado, here are my predictions for the upcoming year.
AFC Breakdown
Last season, the New England Patriots were the class of the AFC once again. Featuring a high-powered offense and a historically bad defense, the Pats made it to the Superbowl for the fifth time in a decade. This offseason they have gone a long way toward improving their horrific defense, and I believe it may have paid off. The team the Pats beat in the AFC Title game, the Baltimore Ravens, were a dropped touchdown pass by Lee Evans from Joe Flacco away from winning the AFC title. With an aging defense and an improving offense, this may be the last season before the window closes on the Ravens championship hopes. A big shakeup in the AFC this year is the addition of Peyton Manning to the Denver Broncos. While I agree the receivers for the Broncos are not household names, I believe that Manning could change that. He is currently teamed with the best running back he has had in his career in Willis McGahee, and also, by far the best defense he has had throughout his illustrious career. This could turn Denver into a legitimate championship contender. Another team looking to make waves is the Houston Texans. If they could have stayed healthy last season, they might have won the Superbowl. They won a playoff game with their 3rd string quarterback and even gave the Ravens a scare in the divisional round. If Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Arian Foster, and a few key players on defense can stay healthy this year, the sky is the limit for this Texans team.
NFC Breakdown
A season ago, after spending much of the regular season struggling to make the playoffs, and finally sealing a spot in the last week, the New York Giants won 3 road playoff games (just like in ’07) to get to the Superbowl rematch against the New England Patriots. Last season the Giants saw the emergence of former UMASS wide receiver Victor Cruz, and the leap from average quarterback to elite status for Eli Manning. Pair that with a dominating defense and I see no reason why the Giants won’t be just as good this season. The San Francisco 49ers, the team the Giants beat in the NFC title game, saw a huge turnaround last season in their 1st season under new Head Coach Jim Harbaugh. Their suffocating defense and solid ground game pushed them far beyond anybody’s expectations. The Green Bay Packers, 2010 World Champions saw their season come to an abrupt halt in their 1st playoff game at home against the eventual champions. Boasting the worst defense in NFL history last season, the packers still finished with the best record in the NFC. Their defense has some great players, so I expect them to bounce back this season. With the addition of running back Cedric Benson, a true workhorse, to bring more balance to the offense, along with the defending MVP, quarterback Aaron Rodgers, I think the Packers will have another solid year.
Offensive Player of the Year
Drew Brees- Drew Brees, quarterback for the New Orleans Saints, much like Calvin Johnson, had his own claim to the MVP award last season. He won this award a season ago when he broke, no… destroyed, Dan Marino’s long-standing record for passing yards in a season. This season, he returns with most of his main offensive weapons intact. I see no reason why this season should be any different.
Defensive Player of the Year
Patrick Willis- Patrick Willis, the destructive linebacker from the San Francisco 49ers, anchors one of the toughest, hardest-hitting defenses in the league. Every year he has been healthy since his rookie season, he has led the defense in tackles and has been a driving force behind one of the most immovable units in the league for the last half decade. If he stays healthy this season, he, along with the 49ers defense, will dominate once again.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Doug Martin- With quarterbacks Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III going 1-2 in the draft, they are obviously garnering the most attention, Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Bucs running back has flown under the radar. After leapfrogging LeGarrett Blount for the starting job, he is in a better position to succeed this season than either of the quarterbacks. He is a solid every-down back that will get his share of carries in an offense that will run the football most of the time. He is a duel threat from Boise State that is just as comfortable catching the ball out of the backfield and run blocking than he is carrying the rock.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Luke Kuechly- Luke Kuechly, linebacker for the Carolina Panthers, has all the tools to be successful in the NFL. His mix of strength, speed, and intelligence won him the Bronco Nagurski award for the National Defensive Player of the Year last season, his junior year at Boston College. Despite only playing college ball for three years, he is 2nd all time in total career tackles. I believe he will have an immediate impact on the Panthers defense and I predict he will lead the team in tackles this season.
Most Valuable Player
Calvin Johnson- Last season I made an argument that nobody, not Aaron Rodgers, not Drew Brees, not Tom Brady, nobody, was more important to their team’s success than Calvin Johnson, AKA Megatron, the dynamic wide receiver for the Detroit Lions. He is the ultimate red zone threat at 6’5”. He is the only reason QB Matt Stafford became just the 4th person to pass for more than 5,000 yards. He is the most unstoppable offensive player in the NFL and if this offense scores points, it is directly linked to his success. He is predicting 1,600 yards & double-digit touchdowns this season and I agree.
Biggest Surprises
The Buffalo Bills started off red hot last season at 5-0, which included a victory against the New England Patriots. After an injury to their best offensive playmaker, running back Fred Jackson, the offense started to falter. Turnovers, sloppy play, and a struggling defense were the demise of a once promising season. This offseason the Bills made a huge splash in free agency, signing 2-time All Pro defensive lineman Mario Williams to bolster a young, up-and-coming defense. With a less than strong schedule this season, the Buffalo Bills may surprise a few people and make a run for the playoffs.
The Carolina Panthers, led by 2nd year phenom Cam Newton, could make a legitimate run at the NFC South crown this season. They have an incredibly weak schedule and will favor from the Saints’ Bountygate suspensions and the fact that the Falcons may have a down year in 2012. Carolina’s 1st round draft pick, linebacker Luke Kuechly from Boston College, is the real deal and could help a young but quickly maturing defense become much better. If Cam Newton can replicate his rookie campaign, I predict the Panthers will go from the worst team in the NFL to NFC South division champs in just two short seasons.
Biggest Disappointments
The Atlanta Falcons have been a really good team, just on the cusp of being a great team. They have made the playoffs three of the last four seasons, including a #1 seed in ’09. Though they have been a consistent playoff team, this core group led by quarterback Matt Ryan, has yet to win a playoff game. Their defense struggles at times, especially in the area of rushing the passer. They rely heavily on a strong ground game, revolving around Michael “The Burner” Turner, to move the offense up and down the field. It seems to me as though Turner has lost a step, and there are rumors that he almost lost his starting job. If he declines too much, this Falcons squad could struggle mightily on offense, and I do not believe the defense is ready to pick up the slack.
Staying in the NFC South, I think that the New Orleans Saints, who have lost numerous coaches and defensive players due to the Bountygate suspensions and free agency, could struggle to keep their head above water this season. Head Coach Sean Payton is suspended for the whole season, and interim head coach Joel Vitt is gone for the first few games. That will hurt the offense, but I believe the Saints will be affected most on defense. The Bountygate scandal left the Saints without Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams, who is suspended indefinitely. It also left them without the heart and soul of the defense, linebacker Jonathan Vilma, who, pending an appeal is suspended the entire 2012 season. Even with a great offense and Drew Brees throwing the ball, these losses may be too much for the Saints to overcome.
Playoff Picture
AFC1)Houston Texans (12-4) AFC South Champs 2)New England Patriots (12-4) AFC East Champ 3)Baltimore Ravens (11-5) AFC North Champs 4)Denver Broncos (10-6) AFC West Champs 5)Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) 1st Wildcard 6)Buffalo Bills (10-6) 2nd Wildcard | NFC1)San Francisco 49ers (14-2) NFC West Champs 2)Green Bay Packers (13-3) NFC North Champs 3)New York Giants (12-4) NFC East Champs 4)Carolina Panthers (10-6) NFC South Champs 5)Chicago Bears (12-4) 1st Wildcard 6)Detroit Lions (10-6) 2nd Wildcard |
Superbowl Predictions
The New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers both had incredible offenses last season. The Pats defense however was statistically the 2nd worst defense in NFL history. The only defense that was historically worse was last year’s Green Bay Packers. That being said, they both had the best records in their respective conferences. Both defenses have some great players, and both made some adjustments this offseason. If both can improve even slightly from a year ago, I guarantee it will be these two teams going head to head for the title in February. Because I believe the talent for both teams is nearly equal, I think this Superbowl matchup will come down to coaching. Bill Bellichick is, in my mind, the best coach in the game today. Mike McCarthy, Green Bay’s coach is good, but Bill is great, and I believe that will be the deciding factor in the biggest game of the season
Other Random Predictions
Darren McFadden will lead the NFL in rushing this season
Mike Vick will start all 16 games for the Philadelphia Eagles
Tony Romo will not start all 16 games for the Dallas Cowboys
The Denver Broncos will not lose any games at home in Mile High Stadium (regular season only)
Both Andrew Luck and RG3 will have solid rookie years
Mike Vick will start all 16 games for the Philadelphia Eagles
Tony Romo will not start all 16 games for the Dallas Cowboys
The Denver Broncos will not lose any games at home in Mile High Stadium (regular season only)
Both Andrew Luck and RG3 will have solid rookie years
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